by Ndesanjo Macha

What more must Zimbabweans do? This question was posted at This is Zimbabwe blog. Bev Clark, blogging at Kubatana blog responds, “…a helluva lot.” Bev argues that unseating a dictator does not only take place through an electoral process:

It does not, and in fact we’ve tried that a few times. Sure there needs to be an election to expose - what is so clearly being exposed - the work of Rigger Mugabe. But it doesn’t end there. A stolen election needs to be backed up by strong civic resistance. And usually its a good idea to have civic resistance guided by strong leadership. This is where Plan B comes in - the elephant in the room as far as the political opposition and civil society is concerned.

There is absolutely no question that the MDC has worked hard and campaigned strongly, but this is not enough. The MDC must prepare their supporters for resistance and be willing to lead them. Clear leadership from the MDC will mitigate spontaneous and sporadic violence. Civil society organisations must ignite their memberships (if indeed they actually have them) and lead them in defense of their vote. The international community must be prepared to speak out and support democratic change in Zimbabwe.

Here are some of the voices of the people:
We have tried the democratic route more than three times now and the election has been stolen. We have tried the courts, and up to now Tsvangirai does not have a verdict for an election of 2002.We have no choice but to go beyond “round 2” and we have to exercise people power. Odinga asserted himself and the world stopped and listened. Politics is about making the appropriate judgments and if Tsvangirai thinks the international community is going to give us independence then he will remain in opposition forever. Way Forward: Let’s reclaim State House, its unoccupied anyway!!!
Marko Phiri sees the possibility of people being pushed into “wild orgies of protests”:
But one has to take the pulse in the urban streets since the 29th of March - the people have had it, and if they are not pushed to anarchy and wild orgies of protests then it remains in the domain of the esoteric as one attempts to decipher why Zimbabweans will never rise and claim their right to a better life.

He also writes about a man playing protest music at his “beer garden”:
Blaring from the speakers of a public address system with the din reaching more than 5 five neighbourhood streets is music which is likely to earn the man spinning the discs a thorough beating from the thought police. He plays Hugh Masekela where he exhorts by name African despots - including our very own - to cede power and retire peacefully; he plays Mbongeni Ngema’s Freedom Is Coming Tomorrow, from the Sarafina soundtrack; he plays Thomas Mapfumo’s Jojo; he plays that Oliver Mutukudzi classic Bvuma. And I am like, “What the %*$#? This is Sunday where those who voted and those who didn’t are at the pub imagining they are whiling away minutes expecting the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission tobegin the announcement of Saturday’s polls and here is a guy nailing his colours to the mast giving patrons - and whole neighbourhoods - his thoughts about the current affairs.

Still Here conducted an informal survey at a supermarket:
I went to the supermarket today to peruse the empty shelves. What fun.
While there, I decided to run an informal survey.
I asked 9 people what they would do if Bob gets in.
6 answered they would leave the counry; 1 said she would follow me wherever I went; and only 1 said he would march on State house.
I wonder if the 6 who are leaving have already cut their hole in the fence and what area of crime they will be forced to enter in their unwelcome destinations?

Dewa Mavhinga questions the credibility of Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC):
Because of the highly suspicious behaviour of ZEC of taking too long to announce official results, there are genuine fears that Mugabe and ZANU PF want to subvert the will of the people and silence the people who have spoken through the ballot by fixing figures and announcing that Mugabe and ZANU PF as winners. There are rumours now swilling in Harare that security chiefs are in marathon meetings preparing to rig elections and prepare to crush any challenge to their electoral fraud.

I must say the conduct of ZEC is reckless and inconsiderate as it puts the nation at risk of a Kenya style revolt as the absence of official results for no apparent reason creates tension and anxiety in the people. It is criminal and treasonous for security chiefs to interfere with the counting of the vote and the announcements; security chiefs must be warned that days of lawlessness and mayhem in Zimbabwe are over. In a new Zimbabwe we will hold them to account for their actions. If Zimbabwe’s army and police think that they can hold the nation hostage they are dreaming; no-one can stop the wind of change that is sweeping across Zimbabwe, not Mugabe, not Chihuri, and not Chiwenga. Mugabe has said his conscience will not let him sleep if he steals an election (l wonder how he has managed to sleep since 2000), so he must heed his conscience and do the honourable thing of respecting the will of the nation. Zimbabwe needs a new political leadership with fresh ideas. Zimbabwe cannot move on with Mugabe at the helm; Mugabe must go, and he must go now before he plunges our beloved country into chaos and bloodshed.

Izzy wonders why a simple arithmetic takes over 48 hours. He advices voters to email and phone ZEC to complain:
Email the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) at zecpr@gta.gov.zw or phone them on +263 4 781 903 to complain about the unacceptable delay in announcing the results.

Amanda Atwood analyses the results:
As it stands, based on our own tally of results, Zanu PF has the largest number of votes of any party, but the combined other contesters outstrip Zanu PF.

These results have been recorded by hand off the ZEC announcements, and then transposed onto a spreadsheet, so some errors may have been made along the way, but it looks something like this:

• Total votes cast: 1,184,723
• Zanu PF: 555,189
• MDC (Tsvangirai): 492,346
• MDC (Mutambara): 94,560
• Combined Independents/Other parties: 42,628

So Zanu PF is ahead. But if you add up all non-Zanu PF votes, they don’t look quite so comfortably positioned:

• Zanu PF: 555,189 (46.9% of votes cast)
• Total non-Zanu PF votes: 629,534 (53.1%)

In other words, at least at a House of Assembly level, with 109 of 209 constituencies reported (one constituency was uncontested, and was declared for Zanu PF without an election), Zanu PF has more votes than any party, but not an absolute majority of votes cast.

According to This is Zimbabwe, the results show that the opposition will control the House of Assembly:
These results clearly show that the opposition coalition now enjoys a majority control of the House of Assembly. However, please be aware that should Mugabe steal the Presidential vote, according to the constitution he would have the power to dissolve the House of Assembly.

Parallel Voter Tabulation (PVT) results have been compared to the “official” Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) figures. The “official” results are emanating from the government controlled body at a snail pace and indicate massive discrepancies in certain constituencies, a clear sign Zanu PF is desperately attempting to inflate results in their favour. This is being done to reduce Morgan Tsvangirai’s presidential vote to below the 50% plus 1 result required for him to win the race in round one.

Izzy writes about the Independent Results Center, a group that has been posting election results on its website based on reports from their agents on the ground:

In 2008 a secretive group of compatriots may have gotten the jump on Mugabe they came prepared and knowing Zimbabwe's electoral law they knew results would be posted as bulletin outside every polling station. The group deployed trained polling agents, equipped with phones and cameras, throughout the country on election day Saturday, and they counted voters and took photographs of voting results pasted up at voting stations (a previously unobserved requirement of voting regulations). The information was sent via text messages or satellite phone to a call center in South Africa, where it was collated and posted at www.zimelectionresults.com for all to see. “These will be archived on this Web site later as forensic evidence,” the site says.

This is Zimbabwe and The Bearded Man are also posting latest election results.

http://www.globalvoicesonline.org

by Ndesanjo Macha

While the whole world is waiting for the official announcement of election results in Zimbabwe, the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvagirai, is claiming victory. Amanda Atwood writes:

But the MDC isn’t waiting. Ballot papers were counted at polling stations, and many of these have finished. Based on these preliminary results, the MDC is claiming victory.

Bev Clark argues that it is time for open air celebrations:

OK its almost official but not quite - the Movement for Democratic Change has trounced the “fist of fury”. Way to go. We’ve had two victory press conferences at the Meikles Hotel which are entirely necessary, but its enough already. As Amanda rightly asked, when is the MDC going to reconnect with their supporters who are sitting in the dark, waiting and wondering about the election results? The MDC’s base of support comes from working class people who don’t have access to satellite TV and the Internet.

Morgan Tsvangirai should be doing victory laps around high density suburbs, inspiring and preparing Zimbabweans for the next round of the fight for democracy. As we all know winning elections in Zimbabwe don’t necessarily mean a transfer of “power”.

So where are the MDC trucks and vans and cars filled with campaign workers roaming the cities hooting up a storm of resistance? They were very active and visible pre-election - now where have they gone?

Enough with Press Conferences for Change; let’s have some open air celebrations.

Hope reports that the situation in Harare is tense:

The news in now is that the streets of Harare have gone quiet. That the atmosphere there is tense with police being deployed all over the city.

Tension is rising with every minute they delay the announcement of the votes.

In contrast, in Bulawayo celebrations are starting.

It’s a rollercoaster ride.

There are suspicious movement of cars towards the headquarters of the ruling ZANU PF:

As we all wait with bated breath for results, word from a colleague in Harare is that he spotted scores of Mercs and 4×4s hurtling towards Zanu PF headquarters at top speed disregarding red lights. What’s up, we wonder?

News already out is that the MDC have claimed victory.

There are unconfirmed reports that Robert Mugabe has left the country:

The unconfirmed reports (or rumours) are flying crazily. Just heard that Robert Mugabe has apparently left for Mozambique (this morning it was Mauritius).

We also heard that Chiweshe (ZEC Chairman) fled the Meikles Hotel in Harare where the press are gathered waiting to hear results. The story goes that he refused to deliver the news.

Another unconfirmed report is that Elliot Manyike has shot someone in anger, seriously angry because he lost his seat.

But the oddest news of the morning so far is the story that Sabina Mugabe has died of a heart attack and Bob is using this as an excuse to delay the news.

I laughed at this last, because it sounds like such Zimbo grapevine stuff, but the story is coming in from a variety of sources.

It’s hard to filter fact from fiction at this stage. But what it tells me is that the nation is desperate for news and starting to share everything they have as fast as they can.

Oh, and last bit of confirmed news - this is fact fact - via the ZBC is that they are still “verifying” the results. We all know what “verifying” has meant in previous years.

You can find latest election results at My Zimbabwe Today blog:

Vote counting continues in the Zimbabwe elections. Here I will keep collecting the latest elections results from Zimbabwe. Early results seems to show a win for Tsvangirayi's MDC. MDC is said to have won 28 seats in Harare with only one seat to be confirmed.
There are also reports indicating that most current Zimbabwe Ministers have been swept away by the tide of change. Eliot Manyika, Zvinavashe, Vice President Mujuru, Mutasa, Muchinguri they are all said to have lost the election.

Constituencies won by MDC - Morgan Tsvangirayi

MT DARWIN
NYANGA
MAKONI CENTRAL
MAKONI SOUTH
MUTARE CENTRAL
DANGAMVURA CHIKANGA

Are the words of Izzy Mutanhaurwa becoming a reality?:

Everything has a beginning and an end, even governments formed on a bedrock of anti-colonisation movements even dictatorships come to an end. It was 27 years for Zambia, 30 years for Malawi and it will be almost 28 years exactly for Zimbabwe just 18 days shy of our independence from colonial settlers for us to be able to have a post-liberation struggle government. Tomorrow the 29th March 2008 Zimbabweans will go to the polls to choose their next government and bin the current illegal government of Robert Mugabe. I have no doubt in my mind that MDC will win the vote as we did in 2000, 2002 & 2005 for us to loose the count.

Before the elections, Sokwanele, used Google Map to map election rigging:

Sokwanele has mapped a sample of breaches logged under our Zimbabwe Election Watch (ZEW) project using Google’s map function.
The interactive map aims to give a visual impression of the scale and many ways in which the Zimbabwean government has breached the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections. Elections are a process, not an event, and the same applies to rigging: the scene has been set for unfree and unfair elections on March 29th, and the conditions on the ground have been developed through many months of non-compliance with regional electoral standards.
The events and incidents mapped on the Zimbabwe Election Watch map represent a small sample of the breaches identified under the project since we started monitoring the government’s non-cooperation with regional standards in July 2007. All the information logged under Zimbabwe Election Watch is derived from media sources.
For more detail on the full range of breaches we have logged through the duration of the project, and more information on the SADC Principles and Guidelines, please visit the Zimbabwe Election Watch section of our website and explore the data through the database interface.

Will Sokwanele’s map show us whether the Zimbabwe election was rigged?, asks Ethan Zuckerman:

Each icon on the map corresponds to a media report of an incident that controvenes SADC standards for a free and fair election. Clicking on an icon will take you to the issue of Sokwanele’s Zimbwbe Elections Watch newsletter, which summarizes media report on the elections, and to a database record, where each instance is coded as to which SADC rules it violates.
The Sokwanele site is very careful to note that these media reports represent a sample of violations of SADC standards. It’s very difficult for journalists to afford to travel to rural areas, so reports of possible rigging in those locations are less likely. And since Zimbabwe’s press climate is quite constrained, it’s likely that many incidents of election fraud will go unreported.
Sokwanele has employed some clever and careful tactics here. Because they’re not accepting reports of election fraud, they’re not reporters so much as aggregators. That may help them steer clear of Zimbabwe’s laws which require journalists to be licensed - were they to attempt a strategy like Ushahidi’s of allowing citizens to report incidents of violence, I suspect they’d be shut down immediately.
Will Sokwanele’s map show us whether the Zimbabwe election was rigged? It’s possible that it already has - the map is filled with incidents of “political cleansing”, violence where people who don’t hold membership cards in ZANU-PF have been chased out. If you can’t safely make it to a polling place, you can’t vote. There are countless reports of failures to register voters, of food being given to government supporters and not to the opposition, of violence from police and troops against citizens.

http://www.globalvoicesonline.org