For years, farmers in one of Senegal’s most mango-rich zones, Keur Mbir Ndao, 80km east of the capital, were losing more than half their harvests. While some wrote it off to God’s wrath, researchers told them the cause was actually an Asian fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens, first discovered in Kenya in 2003.

According to the Nairobi-based International Centre of Insect Physiology & Ecology (ICIPE), if these flies are not controlled, they can wipe out crops and economies worldwide. Sunday Ekisi, the leader of the centre’s African Fruit Fly Program, told IRIN West Africa’s horticulture is particularly vulnerable: “The fragmented structure of fruit production, poor standards for phytosanitary management [agricultural goods crossing borders], poor management skills and lack of state and donor support makes eradication a difficult, if not impossible task.”

Ekisi said Africa-born flies can travel and endanger horticulture in other continents’ tropical regions.

In 2005, fruit flies ruined up to 40 percent of Africa’s two-million ton mango harvest, said Ekisi. “It is not just lost crops, but also loss of access to lucrative export markets abroad, which brings in much needed foreign exchange,” said Ekisi.

Three years later, Ekisi told IRIN, not much has improved:“The level of rejection [of African horticultural products] that has been witnessed the last two years as a result of Bactrocera invadens is enormous.”

Kenya is not able to export its mangos and avocados to several countries. Less Ugandan bananas are exported than before. Ghana’s citrus and avocados face the same fate. Ekisi estimated producers are losing 30-50 percent of their harvest value because of flies.

To tackle the problem requires a regional approach, but first, countries need to control the problem within their borders, said Ekisi.
Senegal

The president of Keur Mbir Ndao’s Cooperative of Fruit and Vegetable Producers, Ama dou Diakhate, told IRIN Senegalese farmers were close to giving up in 2005: “People did not know how to deal with these flies and were ready to cross their arms in defeat.”

In 2005, Senegalese farmers produced 60,000 metric tons of mangos valued at almost US$10 million, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. But flies helped cut short the planting season by a month, with the last mangos harvested by 15 August.

In a country where more than 25,000 are directly employed by the mango industry, fruit flies threaten not only fruit, but also livelihoods, said the business development advisor for the US-funded Economic Growth Program, Dr. Patrick Nugawela: “The mango industry has a wide spectrum of people depending on it, so mango flies affect everyone across the spectrum, from the producer to the exporter."

Starting in 2007, the program has worked with trade associations like Keur Mbir Ndao’s cooperative to fight back through a nationwide government led-Integrated Project to Control Fruit Flies.

In 2006 and 2007, producers had some relief with fruit fly interventions and the mangos lasted until the end of the rainy season in September. The extra month helped Senegalese farmers earn an extra US$5 million in mango money, according to export receipts.

In 2008, the Keur Mbir Ndao cooperative hired educators to show farmers that unkempt fields and rotting mangoes breed flies. They demonstrated how to attract the flies with things as simple as basil plants, and traps rigged with lady’s face cream or nutmeg- scents that attract the flies. They showed how neem oil, a natural vegetable oil, can control the flies.

Mangoes buffer price increases

Diakhate said the longer 2007 growing season helped some farmers in Keur Mbir Ndao buy an entire year’s worth of rice for their families at the end of the harvest: “If people didn’t have room to store the 50-kilo bags of rice, they would leave it at the store, and come by to pick up their rice supply monthly.”

Reflecting global price increases, the price of rice in Senegal has increased by 74 percent over the past two years, pushing members of some communities in the rice-dependent country into malnutrition, based on a July 2008 Ministry of Health report.

So far in 2008, farmers surveyed by the cooperative in Keur Mbir Ndao report, on average, an almost 70 percent increase in income over last year. Even so, Diakhate said people are not able to buy a year’s worth of rice as before. “We can afford to stock up only a few months. It is just too expensive now.”

And as of 7 October, Diakhate is still counting on producing more mangos. “We expect this harvest to last one more week.”

But he recognises the battle has not been won yet. “Not all mango growers are engaged in the fight. We are still losing about 15 percent of our harvest. We need to stay vigilant. The flies are smart. We have learned just how quickly they reproduce.”

And vigilance takes money, said ICIPE’s Ekisi: “Investment in fruit fly control can be enormous…it has to be a continuous process.”

IRIN 

It is not often that we get the views of Gambians from the countryside. That does not mean that they do not have something to say, or that they do not want to say something. The fact is that the forum is what they do not seem to have. This is the impression one of our provincial reporters, Momodou Ashmauh Jallow, based in Brikamaba, Central River Region, gathered when he sat down with Alhajie Kebba Touray.

The chief of Niamina East District, Mr Kebba Touray is a rare figure, combining the talents of a preacher with that of a traditional ruler. He compared President Yahya Jammeh to a king in the era of Prophet Yusuph. He said: "Jammeh’s initiative for food sustenance is similar to the king’s dream in Prophet Yusuph’s era, 46,000 years ago".

At his residence, Alhagie Kebba Touray, a distinguished Marabout and a healer by profession, preaches quoting the words of the Holy Qu’ran. In his translation of Suratul Yusuph, the chief said that Gambians ought to be proud and thankful to Allahu Tallah for bestowed on them a "miraculous" president. He directly pointed at Suratul Yusuph, verse 43-47, saying it is highly related to Jammeh’s initiative for food sustenance.

He swore that Gambians don’t know much about the president, the potential of their leader, but that most of them, (Quranic scholars) knew earlier on that he [Yahya] would become the president due to the secrets they had recognised in him. He pointed out that the harvests that people gain each year as part of the president’s initiative for food sustenance comes back to the same Gambians during hard times in the future; a time he said only the president knows, not any other person.

In this respect, Chief Touray sought to urge all the youths in his district to be cooperative and steadfast in communal works, which he said provide immense chance for progress.

He argued that the presidents of other countries, in spite of the prevailing hardship sanctioned by global phenomena, do not care about their subordinates because they have all the chances of becoming rich.

Elaborating on the role his district is playing in promoting the cause of the food self-sufficiency drive, the chief disclosed that 22 hectares of cereal farms have been cultivated, and that their harvest is expected to be the highest in the region (CRR).

However, Chief Touray could not conclude without stating some problems being faced by the people of his district, saying that due to the lack of fresh water in the district, a huge number of cattle die, or suffer abortions and serious abdominal pains. He described salty water as dangerous to animals, appealing to the government and non-governmental organisations to help the district with boreholes.

Poor rains and rising rice prices have contributed to increasing malnutrition to alarming levels in at least three regions of Senegal. Following a rapid assessment in July 2008 by the UN and the Ministry of Health, the government has confirmed a malnutrition crisis in three of the five surveyed regions, with the most critical being Matam, where 17 percent of the children surveyed under five years old are malnourished.

Researchers surveyed Matam, Gossas, Guinguineo, Sedhiou and Goudomp, and concluded Matam, Guinguineo and Goudomp require immediate food assistance, while the other two regions require continued monitoring.

Youssouf Gaye, the head of the Food, Nutrition and Children division at the Ministry of Health, told IRIN Matam’s numbers are the most alarming of the five regions. Of the 670 children surveyed, 117 are malnourished.

Gaye said, similar to other parts of the country, Matam residents have had poor harvests and steep food price increases. The local purchase price of rice has increased 74 percent in the past two years, according to the Senegalese government. There is also less rice available; rice-exporting countries like Mali, Vietnam and Thailand have stopped exporting in order to feed their own people.

Poor rains have increased hunger levels across Senegal where agriculture is the main money maker for 85 percent of rural communities.

Gaye told IRIN Matam has high levels of malnutrition because of its higher number of immigrants, and how they choose to spend their money. “These immigrants do not take care of themselves. [Rather], they build homes, buy huge satellite dishes, and buy household appliances.”

But there are others among the region’s estimated 256,000 residents for whom malnutrition is not a choice.

Matam's rural villages bordering Mauritania have some of the country’s highest levels of poverty. The UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development reports annual rainfall amounts in Matam falling by half within the past three decades, drying up rivers and cutting irrigation to water and cash-strapped farmers.

The nutrition director Gaye says the resulting malnutrition is stunting growth in children under five, which leaves them more vulnerable to illnesses. Gaye says long term, these children will have problems in schools. “Malnourished children cannot follow the curriculum like those who are well-fed.”

In the other surveyed regions, 10 percent were malnourished in Guinguineo, 13 percent in Goudomp, nine percent in Shediou and eight percent in Gossas.

Researchers are expected to assess four additional regions considered to be at high risk for malnutrition: Louga, Kebemer, Bakel, and Rufisque.

In 2001, UN member countries agreed to halve extreme poverty and hunger by the year 2015 in their adoption of Millennium Development Goals (MDG). In 2001, 23 percent of Senegal’s population suffered from malnutrition.

To meet its goal, Senegal would need to improve nutrition for one and a half million people, based on a Columbia University population estimate for Senegal in 2015.

IRIN 

Reflecting the modest growth in the monetary aggregates coupled with the strengthening of the Dalasi and the expected good harvest, inflation is forecast to remain in single digits, reports from the Central Bank of The Gambia reveal.

The report, which forms part of the latest data issued by the Monetary Policy Committee of the bank, also indicates that uncertainty about developments in food and energy prices have further increased inflationary expectations.

However, the report noted, there are risks to the outlook relating to the persistent surge in global energy and food prices.

According to the report, end-period inflation, measured by the National Consumer Price Index, was 3.8% at end-July 2008 compared to 6.3% in July 2007.

“Annual average inflation rate was 4.3% relative to 3.3% a year earlier. Food and non-food price inflation fell to 5.3% and 1.9% compared to 9.7% and 2.5% respectively at end-July 2007.

“Core inflation, which excludes prices of energy and volatile food items, decelerated from 6.4% in July 2007 to 3.2% at end-July 2008,” the report added.

Inflation, the report went on, rose from 2.2% in June to 3.8% in July 2008.

The Monetary Policy Committee report further indicates that commercial banks loans and advances to major economic sectors increased to D3.0 billion in June 2008, or 33.2% from a year ago.

“Loans and advances to all the major economic sectors increased except in agriculture which decreased by 50.4% to D157.7 million. Credit to the fishing industry, building and construction, transportation and distributive trade increased by 6.6%, 95.4%, 78.5% and 37.8% respectively,” the reports noted.

Taking the above mentioned factors into consideration, including the risk to the inflation outlook, the report indicates, the Monetary Policy Committee has decided to maintain the Rediscount rate, the policy rate, at 15.0%.

“The MPC would continue to monitor changes in economic conditions and respond appropriately in order to discharge its mandate to maintain price stability,” the report concluded.

There has been a bumper rainy season and all over the nation certain farmers are claiming that they will enjoy a bumper harvest. These are the lucky ones because unfortunately many farmers all over The Gambia are suffering because of a lack of resources, fertiliser and equipment. We have in recent days seen and announcement from the Central Bank of The Gambia that economic growth is forecast to reach 6.5% for the year 2008. We must begin to ensure that this growth benefits all the people of The Gambia and not just the wealthy few at the top. The prediction is premised on a “strong rebound in agricultural output and the continued growth of the construction industry”.  We must assume that the “strong rebound” mentioned is restricted to the larger wealthier farmers because all through the regions the smaller farmers are suffering because of the constraints mentioned above.

Even the simple matter of weeding is made far more difficult by a lack of equipment. If a tractor is used, the depth of sod that is turned over is far greater and as a result it takes a much longer time for the grasses and weeds to grow back through the soil meaning that farmers can spend the intervening time using their energy for other chores. When the humble hoe is used then the sod is not as deep and the weeds and grasses grow back more quickly meaning that many more man-hours are wasted weeding again very soon afterwards.

Coupled with this reality is the issue of seed and fertiliser costs. Many farmers are struggling to meet these costs and their crop is suffering as a result.

We must ensure that we spread the wealth of this nation to benefit all people. We must empower our farmers and ensure that they can get optimum use out of their land for their benefit, that of their families and the benefit of the nation. Economic growth is certainly good news for The Gambia but we must ensure that it is also good new for all our citizens.

The Governor of the CentralRiver Region, Alh. Ganyie Touray, has said that they are expecting a bumper harvest at President Jammeh’s farms across the region. Governor Touray made this announcement in an interview with The Point at President Jammeh’s rice farms in Janjangbureh recently.

According to him, there are over 45 farms cultivated for President Jammeh across the region including rice, millet/coose and groundnuts and all are doing well. He added that he believes there will be a bumper harvest at the end of the season.

Governor Touray further revealed that President Jammeh is aiming for food self-sufficiency by making the call to go back to the land. “The only way we can overcome food insecurity is to go back to the land and farm. In that way we can drive away poverty and achieve food security,” he stated.

He then thanked and commended teachers, lecturers, headmasters, principals and students who responded positively to the call to carry out voluntary work at the president’s farm in Janjangbureh under the leadership of the regional education director Babucarr Suwareh.

For his part the regional education director for CRR, Babucarr Suwareh, urged the people of CRR to emulate the president and heed his call to go back to the land. This, he said, would drive away poverty and restore food self-sufficiency. He added that the number of principals, students, headmasters, cluster monitors and teachers present to volunteer shows that they are ready to respond to the call to go back to the land. He then commended them for their commitment and loyalty.

Other speakers included Hon. Sainey Mbye NAM Upper Saloum, Seyfo Bakary Jam Jawo, Mr. Mamadi Sanneh cluster monitor and teachers representative Ensa Janfoo. All expressed similar sentiments.

According to the URR Governor, the regular falling of rains and the massive response of farmers in the region to President Jammeh’s call for people to go back to the land are the motivating factors.

These factors, he added, have encouraged the farmers to grow more crops especially rice, coose and groundnut. “So far so good, the crops are doing well and are beautiful,” he said.

Governor Khan stated that farmers in the region are being inspired by President Jammeh who despite being President of the Republic still has time to work on his farm. “ I am not afraid of any other region this year,” Governor Khan stated.

He added that in all the districts in the region the crops are doing well as farmers took full advantage of the constant rainfall pattern.

The URR Governor also dismissed media reports that farmers in his region are crying for fertilisers, noting that they had been receiving fertilisers since March this year.

Governor Khan also told The Point that as of now there was no report of insect destruction or invasion in the region.

He further revealed that there is a farm for President Jammeh in each of the eight districts in the region.

These farms, he added, are all doing well.

He commended the people of the region for positively responding to President Jammeh’s clarion call for people to till the soil.

The URR Governor is of the firm conviction that by going back to the land, as people in URR are doing, the country can attain food self-sufficiency.

Up to 2.1 million Senegalese are facing food insecurity linked to high food prices and a poor 2007 harvest, according to an inter-ministerial government assessment.

Over one million face “severe” food insecurity, according to the report’s definitions, and the situation could deteriorate. Senegal has a total population of 11 million.

"The food security and nutrition situation could further deteriorate in the upcoming months if the price rise dynamic does not change,” the report stated. Because of this, “emergency operations must be continued and long-term support to the vulnerable stepped up.”

The study, which was undertaken jointly by the Departments of Agriculture and of Livestock, the Food Security Commission, the National Agency for Statistics, and the government’s early warning centre, covered 485 villages across the country.

Worst-affected

Nine out of ten households in the most-affected regions of Sédhiou, Bignona, Oussouye, have difficulty in covering their food needs over the hungry season, while eight out of ten households face the same problem in Tivaouane and seven out of ten in the regions of Rufisque, Tambacounda and Linguère, according to the report.

The majority of interviewees said while enough food was available in the markets, it was increasingly difficult for them to afford the rising prices.

Indeed agricultural production levels have been dropping over the past few years according to the report, making it “more and more difficult for the population… to satisfy their food needs through their own production.”

The government puts the particularly high number of those in need this year down to a poor 2007 harvest – down by 26 percent on 2006 – because of sporadic, short rains in many parts of the country, as well as floods in the regions of Matam, Kolda and Louaga.

Up to 60 percent of Senegal’s population is rural and depends on subsistence agriculture and livestock-rearing, both of which are highly dependent on good rainfall.

Vulnerability came early

Thierno Ndiaye, livelihoods adviser with non-governmental organisation Oxfam, says the hungry season came early this year, as grain bank stocks started to become depleted as early as February rather than in July which is the usual start to the annual ‘hungry’ season.

“Even by March things were starting to get difficult, and people were already starting to lower the number of meals they ate,” he said. Two out of five households interviewed said they now eat just two meals a day, according to the report.

Government response

The government has reserved US$23.5 million to support rural communities suffering from food deficits and plans to distribute 50,000 mt. of agricultural committees in rural zones over three months, aiming to give 3kg of rice per person.

But, despite publishing its findings, the government has fallen short of declaring an emergency. Three out of ten village chiefs questioned, said they had received food aid from NGOs to help them face their problems.

“If they are reporting severe food insecurity, they have crossed a red line,” said Oxfam’s Ndiaye, “but the government does not want to declare an emergency, and this has stopped NGOs from being able to launch a widespread response.”

Despite this the World Food Programme is working with NGOs to provide food for 30,000 malnourished children under five by September. It aims to reach up to 540,000 people with food aid between September and the end of the year.

Aliou Dia, president of an association of rural agriculturalists says the current government rations are not enough. "They are inadequate. This could relieve hunger for a few days but we need bigger stocks to get through the lean season.” And, he adds, the government needs to get moving if it is to complete distributions by the 20 August as projected.

The ministries involved are calling for increased assistance to be given to the most vulnerable households in the form of food distributions, replenishing village cereal banks, better agricultural training, and where appropriate, school-feeding programmes. They also recommend the situation be regularly monitored through the government’s early warning system.

Hope

The government has already significantly increased its agricultural investments, according to Dia, setting aside US$106 million to the sector in 2008 up from US$58.8 million the year before. So far, this money has been spent on buying and distributing seeds, subsidising fertilisers and pesticides and strengthening rural credit schemes to try to boost production across the country.

This is part of a bigger government-wide push, dubbed the “grand agricultural offensive for food security or ‘GOANA’ to boost Senegal’s self-sufficiency in food production – Senegal currently imports that vast majority of the rice it consumes.

But while some are gung-ho about GOANA, others are more skeptical. An agricultural expert told IRIN when it was launched, “Theoretically it is possible to meet these [rice] targets… but jumping from 20 percent [sufficiency] to 100 percent, given the trend of the past 20 years where yields have been stagnant or even decreased, will certainly be a challenge.”

However, some say the cash injection is already paying off. “The government subsidised seeds by 70 percent this year and they were delivered on time. We hope that if the rains, which started early this year, maintain at this pace, we could even beat past production records,” Dia told IRIN.

And in the meantime, he calls for immediate emergency assistance to be stepped up.

IRIN

FAO Initiative Focuses on Local Production to Offset High Prices

FAO is moving into the final stages of an intensive month-long distribution of millet, sorghum, maize, cowpea and peanut seeds to 33 000 farmers in the regions of Burkina Faso that have been hardest-hit by a devastating combination of soaring food prices and severe weather that has vastly reduced the local food supply.

Prices across the region have been increasing steadily over the past two years, mirroring the outside pressures from international markets.

FAO has just finished one of the last distributions, of nearly 20 tonnes of improved seed varieties and just under 30 tonnes of fertilizers, in the villages surrounding Gourcy, the provincial capital of the arid Centre North region. Recent distributions covered much of the country’s eastern and central zones. In all for the current planting season, about 600 tonnes of improved seed varieties and 432 tonnes of fertilizers have been made available to impoverished farmers in Burkina.

“Last year’s rains began late, and when the rains came, they came in torrents. Crops, food stocks and seed supplies were destroyed, people’s livestock were killed and pasture lands to feed any surviving animals ruined,” said Jean-Pierre Renson, the FAO Emergency Coordinator in Burkina Faso and the acting FAO Representative in the country.

“In the 15 provinces where FAO is distributing seed, under these circumstances less than 10 percent of the food needed will be produced to feed people. We hope to boost that considerably now,” said Mr Renson.

In addition to seeds being provided of the main staple grains, quality vegetable seeds are also being distributed to be planted in the dry season, September-October, to take advantage of planting areas that with irrigation can still produce.

Preventive Measures

FAO is also training local producers in quality seed multiplication, to continuously augment the amount and quality of seed available, as well as to raise crop yields. And in September, Mr Renson said, it is hoped that by using a new strategy, FAO can intervene when there are early indications of hunger.

“Depending on funding, in September FAO would be able to help the women and children coming for treatment at the regional nutrition centres,” Mr Renson said. “FAO can act ahead of time in a sense, in that by giving the women seed packages to bring back to their villages, the local food supply there can be increased where there is hunger,” he explained.

In Burkina Faso, 23 percent of children suffer from acute malnutrition. More than 80 percent of the population makes a living in subsistence agriculture, and 45 percent of people live below the poverty line.

A Future in Rice

“In theory, Burkina Faso can be self-sufficient in producing enough of traditional grains to cover its food needs, but severe weather has been ruinous for the last few years,” said FAO Economist Benoist Veillerette.

He said that rice had increasingly become preferred by people living in the urban areas, as it was cheap and easy to cook, though overall it accounts for not more than 15 percent of grain consumption.

“However, now that prices are so high, with about two-thirds of the country’s rice being imported, this is a unique opportunity for farmers to invest in rice farming and improve their livelihoods, rather than struggle in subsistence farming,” Mr Veillerette said.

According to FAO data, in the capital Ouagadougou, rice was 87 percent higher at the beginning of June compared with the same period a year before.

The current FAO response under its Initiative on Soaring Food Prices in Burkina Faso comprises a number of emergency projects worth more than US$2.5 million. FAO has developed an extensive plan to breathe life into national agriculture, in part by leveraging the possibility to produce and profit from rice. The proposal, which would require some US$7.7 million in just the next few seasons, would involve developing water control methods for low-land rice farming around rivers and floodplains.

“Farmers now have a reason to produce rice, whereas before there was no incentive, especially since rice is consumed mainly in the cities,” Mr Renson explained.

FAO 

Malawi, riding high on recent cereal surpluses, is hedging its bets against inclement weather disrupting its good fortune by using a financial derivative to offset agricultural risk.

Unlike insurance, weather derivatives are financial contracts based on an underlying weather index; in the case of Malawi the index will use a model that estimates maize production based on rainfall data.

The thresholds underlying the rainfall index are based on a national maize yield assessment model used by the Malawi Meteorological Office since 1992 for forecasting maize production in the country.

David Rohrbach, a senior economist at World Bank's Malawi office, told IRIN the goal was to reduce vulnerability to weather shocks in the context of strengthening food security.

"First, it is important to note that this is not a formal insurance policy, as might be transacted through an insurance company, with a payout when a problem is judged by the company to have occurred; this is a contract on the international weather derivatives market," he said, because the contract was based on rainfall levels.

Rohrbach said the index captured the impact of the timing, amount and distribution of rainfall during the growing season. This allowed the model to determine the impact of early-, mid- or late-season drought on the maize harvest. Daily rainfall data is collected from about 20 rainfall stations used to supply data for the model.

"In simple terms, if the rainfall level is above a given threshold there is no payout. If rainfall drops below the threshold, a payout occurs. The payout grows as the severity of drought increases up to a maximum level. In effect, there is no need to confirm that the country or any particular farmer actually suffered a loss," Rohrbach said.

In June the World Bank agreed to create a new weather derivatives product, allowing Malawi to use the financial markets to offset risks from drought. The weather derivative market began in the US in 1997 and has rapidly grown into a multibillion-dollar industry used by investors ranging from agricultural industries to sporting events organisers.

Malawi introduced a fertiliser subsidy programme in the aftermath of the 2005 drought, which left nearly five million people in need of food aid, and has since become increasingly food secure.

The government estimated the 2007 maize crop at 73 percent higher than the average for the past five years. Around two million tonnes of maize are required annually to feed the population of about 12 million, but the country has harvested a surplus of about 1.5 million tonnes.

Pilot project

According to the World Bank, Malawi's weather derivatives transaction will test the market with a small contract that is expected to pay out a maximum of about US$3 million if severe weather conditions prevail. The premium for the initiative will be paid by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID).

A similar transaction was completed in Ethiopia in 2006 under the auspices of the World Food Programme. "In that case no payout was made because Ethiopia experienced favourable rainfall," Rohrbach said.
The World Bank Treasury will act as an intermediary on behalf of Malawi to facilitate the country's access to the international weather derivatives market, thereby reducing transaction costs. Malawi will pay the World Bank Treasury for the costs of the transaction and receive any payout generated.

As the international weather derivatives market becomes accustomed to these transactions, the World Bank expects the Malawian government - and other governments - to begin pursuing such transactions independently.

"In sum, if there is significant drought in the country, the government will get a payout whose level is determined by the size of the premium paid and the severity of the drought. This payout may be used to help purchase grain to resolve supply shortfalls or to distribute grain from national strategic grain stocks," Rohrbach said.

"One caveat: payouts are most likely if drought is severe. If drought is restricted to a small part of the country, or is not severe, there may only be a partial payout or none at all."

IRIN